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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still